BLUF: The author discusses various topics including Russia, AI, month-end rebalancing, T-bill issuance, jobs data, the Fed’s stance, credit vs equity, earnings, and the housing market in relation to homebuilders, commercial real estate, and banks.
The author highlights a Russia-focused webinar, featuring experts providing insights on Russia’s involvement in geopolitical events and its relationship with the U.S. The author mentions a previous AI webinar replay, recommending the reading of a paper on AI risk management. The reduced need for equities-to-bonds rebalancing due to recent stock sell-offs is discussed, as well as the Treasury’s issuance of T-bills with limited market impact, which may act as a headwind for risk assets. The upcoming release of jobs data is mentioned, along with the author’s skepticism about the accuracy of the data and its impact on recession arguments. The author predicts that the Fed will struggle to hike rates more than 50 bps this year and believes credit will outperform equities due to valuation and crowded trade issues. The author expresses interest in earnings reports and mentions the prevalence of AI mentions among companies. The discussion shifts to the housing market, where the author suggests that homebuilders’ performance may not accurately reflect the overall market. Lastly, the author notes that more information on banks, commercial real estate, and other topics will shape market direction in the future.