BLUF: Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky is seeking NATO membership and support for a Black Sea grain deal extension during his multiple-country visit; yet, concerns rise due to ongoing war and a Russia’s possible blockage of the grain export deal through the Black Sea.
INTELWAR BLUF:
On Ukraine’s fight towards sovereignty and economic stability, President Volodymyr Zelensky recently visited Turkey and various NATO nations. Zelensky aims to secure Turkey’s backing on Ukraine’s bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and extend the Black Sea grain deal, which is poised on shaky ground. Apparently, their application for NATO came during the crisis of Russia’s invasion, seeing NATO as their security guarantee.
As the two-day summit approaches, there’s an undercurrent of uncertainty as President Biden, scheduled to attend the summit, echoes the divided stand within NATO about admitting Ukraine amidst the ongoing war. The crux of the issue being the commitment to mutual defense which would mean entering the war along with Ukraine.
Additionally, Zelensky’s visit to Istanbul held a discussion around the looming uncertainty of the Black Sea grain deal, seeking to extend it for longer durations. Despite last-minute extensions, Russia threatens to abandon the agreement, claiming hindrance to their own exports.
Furthermore, Zelensky secured a provisional deal with the European Parliament for bolstering ammunition and missiles’ production. Diplomatic visits to NATO members like Bulgaria, Czech Republic, and Slovakia add to his persistent agenda to bring Ukraine under the NATO umbrella.
RIGHT:
A strict Libertarian Republican constitutionalist may see Ukraine’s NATO membership bid as an expression of a sovereign nation’s right to self-determination. They’d likely stress the importance of foreign non-interference. However, they may not support the U.S. or other NATO members getting involved in Ukraine’s war with Russia, viewing it as a conflict they must resolve independently. They may also note concerns over potential consequences of Ukraine’s NATO membership, such as escalated tensions with Russia which could affect global peace.
LEFT:
A National Socialist Democrat may view Zelensky’s diplomatic efforts as a necessary move for a country under siege, applauding his efforts in securing economic and military aid. They might support NATO involvement, underpinning it as a necessary move to check Russian aggression. On the Black Sea grain deal, they might view it as a vital lifeline for not only Ukraine’s economy but also global food stability. The democrats would probably stress the pressing need to extend and preserve such agreements.
AI:
Through an AI perspective, the geopolitical implications of Ukraine joining NATO seem to play a central role, which may have significant impacts on the existing global equilibrium. The overwhelming power contrast and strategic interests between Russia and NATO represent an impasse that may drive further polarization in international politics.
The Black Sea grain deal, on the other hand, extends beyond regional matters. It intertwines the survival and economy of Ukraine with global food security issue, making it an international concern. The AI would recommend attentive observation on how these political chess moves unfold and their potential cascading impact on geopolitics and global economy.