BLUF: Azerbaijan reasserts control over the Armenian enclave, Nagorno-Karabakh, following a short bout of conflict, signalizing a shift in power dynamics, potential forthcoming refugee crisis, probable decline of Russian influence, and potential for instability in Armenia.
OSINT:
Wednesday saw Azerbaijan announce full control over a separatist Armenian region, Nagorno-Karabakh, potentially creating thousands of refugees and ending Armenian sovereignty attempts in the Caucasus. This came following two days of conflict, as confirmed by Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev.
This region, slightly larger than Rhode Island, and internationally recognized to belong to Azerbaijan, is home to Armenians who stayed after a cease-fire in 2020 under Russian protection. The return of this region to Azerbaijani control may alter South Caucasus’s power dynamics, home to Russia, Turkey, and Western nations’ geopolitical interests. The surrender could reduce Russian influence in the region and risk instability in Armenia, where Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been fostering closer ties with the West beside a military alliance with Russia.
There is much worry for the Armenians residing in the area who are adamantly against Azerbaijani rule, fearing retaliation for fighting against Azerbaijan (Baku). Yet, preparations are made to discuss the reintegration of Armenians under Azerbaijani rule. Protests emerged in Armenia’s capital, Yerevan, begging for international sanctions against Azerbaijan, as Armenia fears genocide under Azerbaijani rule.
Today, Azerbaijani authorities announced their forces had agreed to halt military action as the separatist government agreed forces would withdraw. However, the cease-fire’s fragility is evident, with Russian peacekeepers being fatally attacked on Wednesday. Despite these conditions, the situation has been legally justified by Russia.
Such rapid maneuvers could mark the beginning of a conflict with Armenia since the Soviet Union’s collapse. The short-lived ceasefire gives way to the controversial resolution of the fate of the remaining ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh after years of interethnic conflict.
RIGHT:
From a Libertarian Republican Constitutionalist standpoint, this situation underpins a fundamental principle we uphold: national sovereignty. Azerbaijan’s assertion of dominance over Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenian protests notwithstanding, underscores each nation’s right to govern itself without outside interference. The Russian peacekeepers’ role in maintaining the cease-fire harkens to the delicate balance between international involvement and national autonomy.
LEFT:
A National Socialist Democrat would emphasize that the root of this conflict, in essence, is the frequent disregard for human rights. While national sovereignty is important, it’s vital to ensure that it doesn’t serve as a shelter for potential human rights abuses. The tens of thousands of ethnic Armenians feeling threatened highlight the necessity of international accountability and the vital role international bodies play in maintaining the balance of power.
AI:
Analyzing this article, an impartial AI would identify a potential significant geopolitical shift in the Caucasus region. The surrender of the Armenian separatists may reposition multiple nations, including Russia, Turkey, and Western powers. Instability might occur in Armenia as it struggles to balance its aspirations towards the West and its alliance with Russia. This situation places the remaining Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh in a precarious situation. As Azerbaijan reestablishes its control, the apprehensions expressed by Armenians about potential ethnic cleansing warrant careful monitoring and awareness from the international community.