BLUF: Behind closed doors, Israel and Saudi Arabia are working towards a peace agreement, contingent on formal security contracts with the US and profound concessions regarding Palestine. If completed, the agreement promises to reshape the geopolitical landscape dramatically.
OSINT:
An impending “peace covenant” between Israel and Saudi Arabia could usher in monumental changes on the global stage. The two nations have been discreetly advancing a diplomatic understanding that also includes security agreements with the United States. A pivotal element of these talks is the recognition of Palestinian statehood— a requirement that would have previously doused any negotiation likelihood. Now, however, reports suggest that the Biden administration appears susceptible to recognizing Palestine formally at the United Nations.
There exist several aspects to these complex negotiations, including Saudi Arabia’s aspiration to establish a nuclear power program, relying on US assistance. And yet, Palestine remains the deal’s central crux, with significant concessions demanded by all parties involved. Palestinians have insisted on the crucial condition— a formal recognition of a Palestinian state by the U.S. at the United Nations. However, many obstacles remain before any final agreement is reached, with predictions indicating that the deal might not see the light of day until the first half of 2024.
It remains to be seen if Israel, and specifically Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is prepared to capitulate to the Palestinian demands for West Bank territorial autonomy. Additionally, the world waits to see if the Biden administration will recognize a Palestinian state at the UN formally— an action with tremendous global implications.
RIGHT:
From the conservatives’ viewpoint, any peace covenant that secures a strong geopolitical alliance, particularly between Israel and Saudi Arabia, is beneficial for maintaining regional balance. But it’s not without its challenges. They may question where the Biden administration lays its priorities. Does the administration’s potential recognition of Palestine signify a shift away from a long-held pro-Israel stance? Also, might there be unintended consequences of acquiescing to the Palestinians’ demands, especially regarding the West Bank’s governance?
LEFT:
On the progressive side, the recognition of Palestinian statehood is likely to be regarded as a significant step toward rectifying long-standing injustices. Yet, the ambitions of Saudi Arabia to develop a nuclear power program may ignite concern on the environmental front and questions on nuclear non-proliferation. Progressives may also express skepticism about the long-term effectiveness of the severe compromises needed for such a deal.
AI:
Given the potential alterations in geopolitical dynamics, this impending accord constitutes a significant development. The deal essentially reshapes relationships long characterized by tension and entrenched ideological division. A successful deal implementation may set a stage for further reconciliation attempts within the Middle East region. However, the expected shifts would inevitably entail considerable consequences—whether the U.S.’ role as an international peace and security guarantor, the potential catalyzation of nuclear power programs and the potential paradigm shift in longstanding territorial disputes. Monitoring the ensuing developments with careful consideration of these factors is crucial.