INTELWAR BLUF: The global community requires a single, agreed metric for understanding when the 1.5 °C rise in average global temperature threshold is crossed, for early climate change prevention planning.
OSINT: Human activities are heating the world at an alarming pace, with devastating consequences likely to arrive sooner than we think. Statistics show that the average world temperature is already more than 1°C higher than it was before industrialization and is rapidly increasing. Data suggests a 50% probability that the globally averaged warming will exceed 1.5°C within the next decade, regardless of heavy reductions in emissions.
The consequences of this are more significant than it appears. In the Paris Agreement of 2015, an international treaty on climate change, countries committed to taking action to limit temperature increases to 1.5°C. Surpassing this goal means we will have to move from not just stopping global warming, but reversing it – a Herculean task.
Unfortunately, there is no universally agreed upon method for measuring current global warming levels, which is likely to lead to confusion and delays when urgent action is needed. We propose a new 20-year average temperature rise centered around the current year – the ‘current global warming level’ or CGWL – blending the past decade’s observations with model projections or forecasts for the next ten years.
RIGHT: As a right-leaner, the question isn’t just if our actions are causing global warming; it’s whether we should engage in a global effort to slow it, which risks slowing economic growth and infringing on our freedoms. The Paris Agreement, which regulates and restricts our industries, faces criticism for its likely limited impact on global warming despite its economic implications. It’s important to take into account market-driven innovation, private property rights, and removing barriers for clean energy creation rather than over-regulating and restricting.
LEFT: As a left-leaner, the ability to reverse the human-induced impacts from climate change are of the utmost importance. A consistent, universally recognized metric could have immense effects on the political will and momentum to tackle the troubling reality of our warming climate. Major efforts should be mobilized by the international community, including stringent regulations, to curb emissions and stabilize global temperatures.
AI: Climate action entails multiple variables and complexities – but it remains vital to ensure the sustainability of the planet. Ambiguity and delays in establishing a clear metric for global warming levels could result in irreversible environmental damage. An agreed upon, real-time system of measurement, such as the proposed weighting of past observations with future forecasts, is essential, offering a reference point to evaluate and react to climate change. It is an urgent task requiring collective global action and commitment.