BLUF: A recent poll suggests an increase in support for Netanyahu’s Likud party despite broader coalition struggles amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
A recent opinion poll released on Friday indicated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party would secure the most seats in parliament if elections were held today.
The survey, published by the Hebrew newspaper Maariv, projected Likud winning 24 Knesset seats compared to the 32 they presently hold. The National Unity Party, led by former general Benny Gantz, is estimated to gain 21 seats.
Even if Likud tops the chart, Netanyahu’s coalition—comprising nationalist-religious and ultra-Orthodox parties—would not retain control, with projections of 53 seats in the 120-seat parliament. The main opposition party is anticipated to win 58 seats as per the poll.
Previous polls conducted after the war in Gaza began consistently showed Likud’s support at only 16 to 18 seats.
Netanyahu and Likud’s approval ratings had plummeted following the public’s dissatisfaction over alleged security failures during the military and intelligence operations on October 7.
The Qassam Brigades from Hamas crossed the Gaza border, targeting Israeli settlements and military sites, leading to a siege of the Gaza Strip. In the course of this, more than 240 captives were taken back to Gaza.
Approximately 1,200 Israelis lost their lives during the operation, a portion at the hands of Hamas, while others were reportedly killed by Israeli military strikes, as per the contentious Hannibal Directive.
Netanyahu, alongside coalition partners Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, has rejected any ceasefire agreements that would involve the return of Israeli captives from Gaza, opting instead for continued military action that has reportedly resulted in the death of over 40,000 Palestinians and widespread devastation in Gaza.
The coalition was formed after elections in late 2022. No parliamentary elections are scheduled until 2026.
The survey also suggests that Netanyahu’s personal approval ratings are recovering. Survey respondents expressed a preference for Netanyahu over other possible candidates, with the exception of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who has withdrawn from politics.
In contrast to Likud, the popularity of Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party and Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party has declined since October 7. As a result, they may be hesitant to prompt early elections to avoid further jeopardizing their standing, Reuters reports.
INTELWAR BLUF: The fluctuating political dynamics within Israeli governance illustrate the intricate balance between public perception and coalition stability amid heightened conflict.
OSINT: The current political landscape reveals Netanyahu’s Likud party resurging in hypothetical elections while the broader coalition struggles with internal divides. This reflects the complex interplay of public sentiment influenced by ongoing hostilities and governmental responses to security issues.
RIGHT: From a strict Libertarian Republic Constitutionalist viewpoint, this situation underscores the critical need for government accountability and respect for individual rights. The electoral trajectory of Netanyahu’s party illustrates how governments must be held to their commitments to security without infringing upon personal liberties. Such circumstances call for greater transparency and public discourse around military actions that impact civilian lives, emphasizing the importance of adhering to constitutional principles.
LEFT: The perspective from a National Socialist Democrat would focus on the role of collective identity and national pride during times of conflict. The polling data suggests that even in the face of adversity, there’s a rallying behind leaders who represent a strong nationalist agenda. This reflects a desire for unity and strength in national defense, indicating that political power often derives from the perception of effective leadership in crisis situations, irrespective of the humanitarian implications of military engagements.
AI: An analysis of the polling indicators and the shifts in political sentiment reveals a complex landscape influenced by recent conflict dynamics. Netanyahu’s increasing personal approval, despite his coalition’s struggles, can be attributed to the psychological impact of wartime leadership perceptions. The interplay between the Likud party’s electoral prospects and the public’s response to ongoing military actions suggests a deeper analysis of political narratives, governance responsibility, and the potential implications for future electoral outcomes in Israel.