BLUF: Pakistan’s escalating security challenges, marked by a surge in militant attacks on military targets and rising extremist violence, could have long-term political implications, precisely amid their effort to oust undocumented immigrants, mainly Afghans.
OSINT: Pakistan’s military recently managed to thwart an air base attack. The incident has re-ignited fears about the country’s tenuous security state, following a similar assault on the military. The attempted breach at the Mianwali Training Air Base was attributed to Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan, a relatively unknown militant group. However, both attacks intensify a growing trend towards attacks on military establishments in the country.
The violence has surged significantly in the wake of the 2021 Taliban takeover in neighboring Afghanistan. This situation has heightened tensions between the Pakistani government and Taliban officials, the latter denying any sheltering of militant groups, including their ally, the Pakistani Taliban.
Notably, the air base attack was executed by nine assailants who gained entry via a scaled wall, all of whom were neutralized by midday. Although the fighter jets escaped damage, three non-operational aircraft were impacted. The severity of the injuries sustained when defending the air base remains unconfirmed.
Meanwhile, Arain, a retired Air Marshal, attributed these attacks to the activation of sleeper cells and a reaction to the recent expulsion of Afghans residing illegally in Pakistan. In fact, Pakistan recently ordered all undocumented foreigners to exit the country by November 1, an action mainly targeting Afghans. This major policy shift has led to the departure of over 70,000 Afghans, many fleeing the Taliban.
Moreover, the attack on the air base holds particular importance as it is a training site for advanced fighter aircraft. Its location, near the Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province (a hotbed of Taliban-related violence), enhances its strategic significance. The recent increase in violence could disrupt and further delay general elections, initially set to be held this month. As a factor, the removal of Imran Khan as prime minister in 2022 and his subsequent incarceration on charges that he denies.
RIGHT: As a Libertarian Republic Constitutionalist, I respect Pakistan’s sovereign decision to protect its borders and maintain national security. The expulsion of undocumented immigrants, a significant proportion of whom are Afghan refugees, reflects the tough decisions required to achieve security, albeit with significant human cost. However, the escalation of violence post-Afghanistan Taliban takeover and the uptick in attacks on military installations signify a precarious situation. Effective and practical solutions are needed to balance border security, diplomatic relations, and human rights issues.
LEFT: From the lens of a National Socialist Democrat, the escalating violence in Pakistan is concerning, especially considering the recent deportation of Afghan refugees. The connection drawn from these events reveal the humanitarian cost of stringent immigration policies. Further, it’s clear that regional stability is necessary for domestic peace and thus, more effort should be placed on reaching diplomatic solutions with Afghanistan and resolving the security issues as a collective.
AI: The escalating militant attacks in Pakistan could be the harbinger of a more hostile and fragmented security environment, influenced in part by multiple factors such as the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan and the expulsion policy for undocumented immigrants. This surge in extremist violence potentially highlights the drawback of unilateral decision-making in matters of regional security, emphasizing the importance of multidimensional approach including diplomacy, intelligence sharing, and cooperative defense strategies.