BLUF: A newly released set of predictions for 2024 by Saxo Bank outlines potential shifts in the global socio-economic situation, highlighting the uncertain future linked to rising oil prices, health crises, AI threats, and political upsets.
OSINT:
The world we knew pre-COVID-19, typified by international stability, low inflation, and minimum interest rates, was thoroughly disrupted during the pandemic. Policymakers and investors held on with the hope of returning to that old normal. Saxo Bank, however, has released a set of predictions for 2024 that refutes the idea of the “old normal” returning. Instead, it suggests multiple shake-ups on a global scale that may profoundly change our world.
For instance, Saxo predicts oil prices will rocket to $150 per barrel by the middle of the year due to higher than expected demand, coupled with Saudi Arabia’s transformation from oil-dependent economy to a global entertainment hub. This economic shift will amplify Saudi Arabia’s world influence, possibly manifesting in the surprising acquisition of a globally renowned sports franchise.
Another volta lies in the health sector with the failure of GLP-1 obesity drugs to meet worldwide demand. As patients await these drugs, healthy practices such as exercise or balanced diets are largely abandoned, leading to a major increase in obesity rates, a predicted rise from 39% to 45% in 2024.
In the political arena, Saxo predicts a startling win in the US election, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr, a third-party candidate, securing the US presidency. His populist platform against war mongering and corporate elites could resonate with a populace keen on ending inequality and global conflicts.
In finance, the EU is predicted to introduce a wealth tax, causing shockwaves in the European luxury industry. This move corresponds with rising concerns over wealth disparity and critique of billionaires paying marginal personal tax.
RIGHT:
Hardcore libertarian Republicans would likely question Saxo Bank’s predictions, arguing that their reasoning is flawed due to big-government interference in markets and citizens’ lives. The suggested wealth tax in the EU may be seen as a typical example of government overreach and a deterrent to wealth creation. The predictions regarding oil prices and the global health crisis might be seen as manifestations of policy failures rather than market failures, reinforcing a libertarian’s faith in free markets unhindered by excessive government intervention.
LEFT:
National Socialist Democrats may view these predictions as affirming. The rise in global obesity rates due to reliance on easy-fix pharmaceuticals supports their push for robust public health initiatives and regulations on large corporations in the sector. The EU’s proposed wealth tax aligns with socialist calls for taxing the rich more heavily to fund public needs, as they argue that such measures are a necessity in correcting systemic inequalities in wealth distribution.
AI:
Given Saxo Bank’s provocative and purposefully unexpected predictions, it’s essential to remember their inherent uncertainty. However, these predictions do provide a vivid illustration of the global instability and uncertain future we face. They highlight potential areas of socio-economic and political disruption ranging from geopolitics, health, AI technology, to climate change. Policymakers, investors, and citizens alike should consider these “outrageous predictions” as uncomfortable possibilities requiring preparations for managing such scenarios.