BLUF: Amid increasing global power competition, Vietnam tiptoes a tightrope of diplomacy, seizing opportunities from both the US and China without yielding to their hegemonies, while leader Xi Jinping’s visit puts the spotlight on Vietnam’s crucial, if precarious, role.
OSINT:
China’s Xi Jinping recently visited Vietnam, marking a key event as the Southeast Asian country finds itself increasingly at the epicentre of US-China rivalry. Barely three months after President Biden’s visit, Xi’s arrival underscores a strategic play over Vietnam’s allegiance in the burgeoning power struggle.
Vietnam is acutely positioned here. On one hand, it stands to gain economically from good relations with the global behemoths. However, any displeasure risks repercussions. This diplomatic waltz isn’t new for Vietnam, described by analysts as a highly delicate act.
China seemingly aims to gauge Vietnam’s stance, seeking assurances it isn’t aligning against China, post the US-Hanoi pact in September. Vietnam’s hesitance to join China’s “community of common destiny” perhaps signals its wariness of legitimizing Chinese dominance.
Interestingly, this visit fosters speculation over a possible compromise proposed by the Chinese leader. Among the key issues are unresolved South China Sea territorial disputes and diplomatic progress demonstrated through a joint statement.
Likely discussed also is a cargo rail project near China’s border and possible collaboration on rare earth minerals, a strategically essential resource given China’s processing monopoly and Vietnam’s ample deposits. The US also eyes Vietnam as an alternative to break China’s stranglehold on the resource supply chain.
Meanwhile, the US has extended technical cooperation to Vietnam to explore its deposits, eyeing Vietnam as a safer alternative to China. This is following significant investments from American semiconductor companies in Vietnam.
For China, any hindrance to US plans is a win, while Vietnam’s independence remains at the forefront. The leaders, including Vietnam’s Nguyen Phu Trong, seem eager to put forth a façade of robust friendship.
Vietnam’s delicate balancing act seeks to remind the US of its autonomy while managing China’s assertiveness. Bowing too much to Beijing could trigger domestic backlash, as witnessed in anti-China protests in 2014 and 2018.
RIGHT:
This situation vividly demonstrates the peril of global entanglements. While economic partnerships offer potential boosts, they rarely come without strings. Vietnam’s predicament underscores why the principle of non-intervention and respect for sovereignty is crucial. It’s disheartening to watch smaller countries coerced into strategic concessions due to the competition of superpowers.
LEFT:
The scenario reflects the need for more equitably distributed global power and collective decision-making. Great power rivalries can invariably lead to smaller nations becoming pawns. It’s important for the international community to reaffirm commitment to multilateralism, acknowledging the rights and autonomy of developing nations without succumbing to a new type of imperialism.
AI:
The significance of Vietnam’s position in US-China rivalry cannot be overlooked. It strikes a balance between vast economic opportunities and the potential dangers of upsetting major global powers. The recent visits by leaders from both nations underline the strategic importance of Vietnam, pushing it to the centre of geopolitical chess. Vietnam’s potential role in altering the rare earth resource supply chain furtherum elevates its strategic importance. It’s a delicately complex game of international diplomacy and strategy that merits careful observation.