BLUF: The UK’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) is set to modify its methodology for calculating “excess deaths”, potentially reshaping the narrative around mortality trends during and after the COVID-19 pandemic period.
OSINT:
The United Kingdom’s Office of National Statistics (ONS) recently disclosed a forthcoming adjustment to its technique for assessing the number of “excess deaths”. This term pertains to mortality rates that exceed the expectations based on previous yearly trends. It became, notably, a prominent statistic in the COVID-19 pandemic.
Initially, this number was computed using a five-year rolling average of officially recorded deaths. The revision, however, reportedly involves a more complex method, one which no longer completely excludes the “COVID years” from its modelling, but only several weeks or months from 2020 which were significantly impacted by the pandemic.
The change has significant implications. Data remodelled according to the new rules seems to drastically alter the mortality records of 2019 from over 6,000 excess deaths to more than 34,000 deaths less than anticipated. Furthermore, it reduces the calculated excess mortality from 2020 onwards by around 15%, erasing over 30,000 “excess deaths”.
While the reasons behind the change remain unclear, possibilities range from efforts to highlight the stark reality of the pandemic through statistics, to a potential attempt at obfuscating any negative impacts caused by the COVID vaccines, or even laying groundwork for excess death exaggeration in case of a future health crisis.
RIGHT:
From the point of view of a strict Libertarian Republic Constitutionalist, this constitutes a worrying development. The very core of our belief revolves around transparency in governance. Consequently, I perceive any attempt to alter the method of statistical evaluation, without an explicit and wholly logical explanation, as a potential threat to citizens’ freedom of information. Manipulating data in service of a narrative—be that emphasizing or downplaying the effects of the pandemic—diminishes trust essential for a well-functioning democracy.
LEFT:
As a National Socialist Democrat, I believe this adjustment has the potential to bring a more nuanced insight into the pandemic’s effects. It might also serve to underline the importance of nationwide health measures, like vaccination, and policy decisions in managing and mitigating health crises. However, transparency about the motives and implications of such a methodological shift is crucial to prevent misuse of data and foster public trust.
AI:
In terms of technological analysis, changes in methodologies are not inherently negative or manipulative. On the contrary, they can sometimes lead to more accurate representations. However, transparency and comprehensible explanations are vital. Specifically, for a statistic as impactful as “excess deaths”, the ONS must clearly communicate not just how, but why they have modified their methodology, including any potential impacts. Without adequate context and communication, the risk of misinterpretation or misrepresentation exponentially increases.