The secondhand luxury watch market has been in decline since April 2022. Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index shows that after stabilizing for six months, prices are sliding again due to a deep freeze in capital markets, aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and wealthy individuals cutting back spending over recession fears. The index, which tracks prices of the 50 most-traded watches on the secondary market by value, saw a 1.4% decrease in prices over the last month alone. In the past six months, prices have dropped by 2.5%, and in the past 12 months, they have plummeted by 26.2%, back to levels seen before the watch bubble. The Rolex Explorer II Orange Handle 216570, Rolex Datejust 36 126234, Patek Philippe Nautilus Bue 5711/1A-010, and Rolex Datejust 41 126333 were some of the largest decliners, down between 3.5% to 3% on the month. Yearly changes for these watches have fallen between 40.5% to 30.6%. This downward trend will continue as long as the capital markets remain frozen, and the wealthy pull back on spending. Investors should keep an eye on the Subdial index and watch for prices to either take out lows from earlier in the year indicating another leg down, or continue to trade sideways from the current levels.
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