BLUF: Chinese President Xi Jinping’s desire to reunify Taiwan comes with the risk of a war with the United States, potentially within the next year and a half, due to favorable conditions for China. The U.S. is already engaged in Ukraine, making it ill-prepared to confront a Chinese invasion. Xi is aware that Joe Biden would not use nuclear weapons, favoring China in a conventional war. However, waiting until after the next presidential election increases the risk of a nuclear conflict. Recent statements from Xi suggest China’s preparations for war, and their increased military activity near Taiwan adds to tensions in the region. The U.S., in turn, has been escalating tensions by sending more troops to Taiwan. The Biden administration has been developing plans for evacuating Americans from Taiwan, which could indicate an imminent war. While many assume the U.S. would win, war games indicate that the U.S. would likely lose a conflict with China.
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