BLUF: Money supply growth in the US has been declining since 2021 and has recently reached negative territory, indicating a significant contraction. This drop in the money supply is concerning for economic growth and job opportunities. The current slowdown in money supply growth has already weakened the economy, leading to various indicators suggesting a recession, such as manufacturing indices, leading indicators, and predictions by Federal Reserve staff. Rising interest rates have contributed to this decline in money supply as banks are less willing to lend without access to easy money at low rates. This credit crunch primarily affects smaller businesses and middle-class households.
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