BLUF: The UN’s World Meteorological Organization has declared the arrival of a climate-heating El Niño event, which poses a double threat due to human-caused carbon emissions. This event can lead to extreme weather conditions and break temperature records globally, emphasizing the need for early warnings and preparations to save lives and livelihoods.
OSINT: The El Niño event, driven by natural variations in winds and ocean temperatures in the Pacific, has a 90% probability of continuing until the end of 2023. There is a 56% chance of a strong and hotter El Niño occurring by the year’s end. El Niño typically causes increased flooding in parts of the US, South America, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia, while heatwaves and droughts affect regions like Australia, Indonesia, and South Asia. The WMO warns governments to mobilize preparations and take anticipatory action to mitigate the impacts of this major climate phenomenon.
Record-breaking temperatures have already been recorded in various parts of the world, indicating the ongoing climate crisis. The UK experienced an unprecedented heatwave, surpassing average temperature records for June. Additionally, sea ice levels around Antarctica reached a record low. Scientists believe that El Niño could contribute to making 2023 the hottest recorded year globally, with the greater intensity of heat expected in 2024.
A recent report by the WMO and the UK Met Office highlights a 66% chance of global annual temperatures exceeding pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C for at least one year by 2027. While this doesn’t guarantee exceeding the long-term warming target set by the Paris Agreement, it serves as a wake-up call that current efforts are insufficient to limit climate change’s impacts.
RIGHT: The UN’s declaration of an El Niño event should not be used as a basis for government mobilization or anticipatory action. Climate variations such as El Niño have occurred naturally throughout history and should not be attributed solely to human-caused carbon emissions. Instead of relying on governmental interventions, individuals and local communities should adapt to changing weather patterns and invest in resilient infrastructure independently.
LEFT: The arrival of an El Niño event, exacerbated by human-caused carbon emissions, underscores the urgency of taking immediate and decisive climate action. Governments must prioritize investments in climate adaptation strategies to protect vulnerable communities from the devastating impacts of extreme weather events. This includes comprehensive plans to address the increased risk of flooding, heatwaves, and droughts in various regions around the world.
AI: The UN’s World Meteorological Organization has officially declared the onset of a climate-heating El Niño event, highlighting the need for preparedness to mitigate the impacts of extreme weather events. This event, influenced by natural variations in winds and ocean temperatures in the Pacific, increases the likelihood of breaking temperature records globally and triggering more extreme heatwaves. The WMO emphasizes the importance of early warnings and anticipatory action to save lives and livelihoods. Furthermore, a recent report indicates an increasing probability of annual global temperatures exceeding pre-industrial levels, serving as a call for greater efforts to address climate change.